Jeremy Renner in Kathryn Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker (top); Zoe Saldana in James Cameron’s Avatar (upper middle); Jeff Bridges, Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart (lower middle); Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Below is our complete 2010 Oscar Predictions list. If we’re correct, The Hurt Locker will win a total of six Oscars, followed by Avatar with three (Titanic won 11 back in 1998), and Crazy Heart and Up with two each. The White Ribbon, The Cove, The Blind Side, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air, The Young Victoria, Star Trek, Instead of Abracadabra, The Lady and the Reaper, and The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner will have one win each.
In a few categories — such as short film nominations — the field is wide open because the nominated films have received little publicity and the winner will be decided by those relatively few Academy members who have watched all five nominees. That’s also why Best Foreign Language Film nominee The White Ribbon can be bypassed not only by A Prophet, but by some lesser-known effort such as The Milk of Sorrow or The Secret of Her Eyes. Unless a major upset takes place, however, The Cove has its Best Documentary Feature Oscar guaranteed.
Among the locks are Up in the Best Animated Feature and Best Original Score categories, Christoph Waltz, Mo’Nique, Kathryn Bigelow, Jeff Bridges, Up in the Air for Best Adapted Screenplay, Avatar for Best Visual Effects, and the Crazy Heart song "The Weary Kind."
Sandra Bullock is a near-lock for The Blind Side, but Meryl Streep may pull an upset for her Julia Child in Julie & Julia. In the technical categories, Avatar and The Hurt Locker are near-locks in almost all of them.
Iffier categories are Best Picture, with Avatar and — to a considerably lesser extent — Inglourious Basterds as possible winners; Best Original Screenplay, which could well go to Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds; and Best Makeup, which may go to The Young Victoria.
For a little more detailed predictions, check out our 2010 Oscar Predictions tag.
Note: The predictions below were originally posted on March 2.
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
Best Documentary: The Cove
Best Animated Feature: Up
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Best Cinematography: Barry Ackroyd, The Hurt Locker
Best Editing: Bob Murawski and Chris Innis, The Hurt Locker
Best Original Score: Michael Giacchino, Up
Best Song: "The Weary Kind" by T Bone Burnett and Ryan Bingham, Crazy Heart
Best Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair, Avatar
Best Costume Design: Sandy Powell, The Young Victoria
Best Visual Effects: Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones, Avatar
Best Sound Mixing: Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett, The Hurt Locker
Best Sound Editing: Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Avatar
Best Makeup: Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow, Star Trek
Best Live Action Short: Instead of Abracadabra
Best Animated Short: The Lady and the Reaper
Best Documentary Short: The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
Photos: The Hurt Locker (Jonathan Olley / Summit Entertainment); Avatar (WETA / 20th Century Fox); Crazy Heart (Lorey Sebastian / 20th Century Fox); The Blind Side (Ralph Nelson / Warner Bros.)